Looking for Change in All the Wrong Places

Since World War II, five Presidents were elected to bring change to the country and particularly to Washington: Kennedy, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush II. They all ran as some sort of an outsider. Washington is still the same; in fact, it's gotten worse. A lot worse. Now we have another change candidate promising us the moon--a different political culture in Washington, an end to all of our problems. "America, our time is now," is the vacuous call to action of Illinois Senator Barack Obama as the latest in a long history of failed reformers who have run for, and often won, the Presidency.

Yet we continue our long march to the fate of Rome and the British Empire. Our once hallowed halls of Congress are filled with charlatans and snake oil salesmen and in many cases good 'ol fashioned crooks. Our bureaucracy serves our people less and less while serving themselves more and more. That bureaucracy rivals that of the ancient civilizations, whose rulers padded his payrolls with minions to keep the masses in line. We face bankruptcy both individually and as a nation. And as we look to the East, we find not a savior, but two looming rivals in China and India.

The globe cannot ignore America, but we are no longer the steadfast father-figure of the world, helping the cause of justice, but rather the aging leader making disastrous mistakes in his senility, ignoring calls to step aside, and trying to just enjoy the little time he has left. Knowing that creditors can't call him in the grave, America keeps running up the credit card tab, and hoping it doesn't max out before he dies.

In the face of these problems we are now being asked by many of our peers to trust Sen. Barack Obama to save us. Now I have been pretty tough on Sen. Obama, and I think for good reason. I don't have anything against him personally--and in fact, I think he's probably quite well-intentioned. I loathe cliches, so I will spare my reader the line about the road to hell and good intentions, but cliches become overused because they are true.

The problem is not so much with Senator Obama himself, but with the people who support Senator Obama. I'm not sure I trust Ted Kennedy to lead the charge for reform in the Senate chamber. It's like running on the platform of reform when you're the incumbent.

But even if Senator Obama were the rogue, a veritable Jimmy Stewart character going to Washington naive and taking on the the special interests, I wouldn't give him much of a chance of success. I've read through his platform--the 64 page PDF document where he promises everything from ending special interest influence in politics to magically making America healthy to miraculously solving our economic woes while raising taxes and closing off trade with foreign nations. There's just one problem for Mr. Obama: if he gets elected, he will be pretty much alone. He'll be even more alone after the first 100 days.

Here's what will happen if he wins. All presidents like to lead with the sexy elements of the platform, and especially the elements they spent the most time talking about on the campaign. Now I've watched a lot of Obama speeches, I've listened to him in the debate, and when he isn't waxing poetic about hope and change and all of that empty nonsense, he's demanding we get out of Iraq, raise payroll taxes, eliminate the Bush tax cuts, and implement national health insurance.

If he doesn't immediately withdraw troops from Iraq (the only thing he can do without Congressional cooperation), his honeymoon will be immediately over with the radical left, which has comprised his earliest and most fervent supporters. If he does withdraw the troops immediately he will alienate at least 40% of the people who strongly oppose even a timetable for withdrawl, much less an immediate withdrawl. The reality is that the public is still radically split on the issue of the war, and he is doomed one way or the other on this issue within his first 100 days, either by acting or failing to act. I bet he does withdraw the troops. Jimmy Carter was our Dovish tragedy; Obama will be our Dovish farce.

On the issue of taxes, Obama stands to incite, perhaps for the first time in modern history, the worst class warfare we have seen. His position on payroll taxes and corporate income tax will not only offend, but economically crush middle and upper-middle income Americans--the small business owners who employ vast numbers of people in this country. Layoffs and downsizing will become even more commonplace as employers are unable to keep on those marginal employees . At that point, he will at least have lost every moderate Republican and many independents remaining after his move on Iraq.

Health Care Reform will subsequently languish in Congress and likely die a filibuster's death in the Senate, or more likely in committee. With Obama's supporters disheartened and deflated, and everybody else infuriated, the hot air that has filled his balloon so far will not lift anybody up, and it will be back to business as usual. Just as it was back to business as usually after unprecedented unity behind George W. Bush in 2001. The cold hard reality of Washington politics will dash the dreams of another generation of dreamers.

But this is not a reason to lose hope. Rather, it is a reason to stop misplacing hope. Rather than looking for one man to bring about change, and rather than hoping that it will all happen in one fell swoop, those who truly want American politics to be fairer, more representative, and more responsive, must resolve to be an agent of change, and en masse reject the people who hold, and should hold, the real power in Washington: Congress.

The Republicans had their chance to change Washington, and they blew it. Now the Democrats are taking their turn, and it is a dismal failure (look at their record settingly low approval rating). If insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different outcome, then the American voter is clinically crazy. Something has to change on Capitol Hill if there is to be change in our system. But don't look for it to come from Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy or John Boehner and Mitch McConnell.