Handicapping the Presidential Race at this Point

The Early-Mover advantage may be a thing of the past. Partly because of the general political fatigue and malaise, and partly because of the lengthy election cycle (something really must be done about this...), I do not think the early front runners have an advantage in this race, regardless of what the polls show currently. In fact, it is beginning to seem that they may be at a disadvantage. Thanks to the Internet, surges from obscurity can occur without large war chests, though nobody (except Ron Paul) really gets this. The Romney and Giuliani Camps on the GOP side, and the Clinton and Obama Camps on the Democrat side need to wake and realize that "two weeks is an eternity in politics" is obsolete. It is now "two minutes is an eternity in politics," and things can change overnight. Just as military strategy has changed in the post-Cold War Era to prefer light, nimble rapid fighting forces over large massive heavy forces, so in political strategy the Internet has changed the game entirely.

Iowa is developing into an extremely fascinating scenario on the Republican Side. In the latest Zogby Poll, Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee showed support amongst 15% of primary voters, second to Mitt Romney's 31%. This is a 7 point gain for Huckabee since August, and a 2 point decline for Romney. Huckabee displaced Giuliani in the #2 spot, with Giuliani's support dropping to 11%. Thompson was 4th with 10%, and John McCain came in 5th at 8%. Because of some of Huckabee's populist stances on certain economic issues and his conservative (but not extremist) views on social issues, it seems that he has the most to gain by siphoning votes away from all of the other major candidates, and especially from Giuliani and Thompson. Thompson's poor performance nationally, and especially in the key early states has not been a great surprise to most national political commentators, as he was never known as a great campaigner. Huckabee, on the other hand, is an incredible campaigner, and is not only convincing, but has the potential to be convincing that he has a chance in the general election nation-wide. This same trend could occur in South Carolina. If he can raise some much-needed cash (double what his site says he needs by the end of November) and make a few strategic changes, Huckabee will enter the top three nationally (and in the rest of the early states), displacing Thompson.

Prediction: By the end of 2007, Thompson, McCain, Tancredo, and Hunter will be out of the race. Thompson's support will likely coalesce around Huckabee in the South, and be more evenly distributed amongst the other candidates nationally. McCain's support will likely bolster Giuliani, and the Tancredo and Hunter votes will most likely go to Huckabee as well, assuming the last sentence of the last paragraph proves true.

On the Democrat side in Iowa, things are less tumultuous and unpredictable, but no less interesting. Obama has made incremental gains since August, and Hillary's losses have been within the margin of error. Edwards and Richardson's numbers have also remained relatively steady. The key on the Democrat side is that Hillary's numbers have been stable within 5 points of where they were as far back as March, proving that as the most "known quantity" in the race on either side, her support is unlikely to increase measurably. Interestingly enough, though, Obama's support has been equally as stable in the same period of time. None of the minor candidates appear to be making a Huckabee-like surge into the top tier, and that presents a problem for the Democrats. If they get tired of Hillary, Obama, and Edwards, they have nowhere to turn. Bill Richardson, although attractive on paper, is ineloquent and chubby. At the risk of being labeled a sexist, I think these two traits make it impossible for Richardson to escape the 2nd Tier, as he will never be able to break into the female voting bloc, which traditionally supports articulate, good-looking candidates.

The Democrats need an out. The problems presented by Hillary (50% of all men, and 55% of married men say they absolutely will not vote for her, for example) may be impossible to overcome in the Electoral College. A Giuliani candidacy puts her lock on New York in doubt. A Huckabee candidacy would almost assure a GOP shut out of the South (which was Al Gore and John Kerry's death knell).

Although I believe America could elect a female president, I am (sadly) less optimistic about its ability to elect a black president. Obama would lose the South against any Republican candidate, including Giuliani. It is no secret that there is substantive animosity between the African-American contingent of the Democratic Party and the other major identity groups: Unions, Hispanics, the Jewish community, and the GLBT community. In all of these cases, save the Hispanics, I believe the Democrats would rally behind whoever was nominated, though I firmly believe that all of the identity groups would be happier with a Hillary candidacy than an Obama candidacy. But, the Hispanic vote is fickle, and the Democrats do not have the lock on it that they have on the other major groups. I think it extremely possible that in the event of, say a Giuliani or Huckabee nomination (both candidates have reasonable and moderate views on immigration), Obama could face a split in the Hispanic vote, enough to turn the tables in key states like California, New Mexico, Arizona, and Florida, all of which the Democrats need to win, and save Florida, HAVE to win, in order to take the White House back in 2008.

Given all of this, I have a couple of predictions to make about the Democratic primary:

1) With Hillary's poor debate performance, Obama and Edwards smell blood in the water and will be taking off the gloves even more, trying to bloody her up.
2) The Democratic primary will be sharply divided all the way to the end, with a possible need for a convention vote.
3) No matter what, Hillary still gets the nomination. In this rare instance, the Democrats will nominate the front-runner, and "stick to the devil they know." If it goes to a convention, Hillary has it in a walk, because hard-core Democrats and the mass of Democrat insiders will support Hillary (if for no other reason than they view it as a second coming of their Savior Bill Clinton, who "rescued" them from the legacy of Reaganism).
4) The Democrats will leave the primary broken, battered, and divided, and we will have another dead-heat, down-to-the-wire general election.

4 more years of gridlock...let's get excited!