Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Why I Support Ben Bernanke's Confirmation

The Federal Reserve is a broken institution predicated on inflationary, boom & bust principles, the intellectually and morally bankrupt concept of fractional reserve banking, and the concentration of the benefits of credit in the hands of government and a few privileged elites. The institution itself needs serious reform at the least, or else it needs to be disbanded altogether and replaced with a system of market-driven credit and interest rates. Ben Bernanke has by all accounts been a crafty Fed Chairman, though that is not necessarily a compliment. He is a dire inflationist, and spends too much time studying the wrong aspects of the Great Depression. I generally think he has engaged in and covered up massive and widespread fraud through the private Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But in spite all of this, I think he should be re-confirmed. Like everything in the politics of a democracy, we do not choose leaders in a vacuum; the choice is always between and amongst a variety of alternatives. So the real reason I support Ben Bernanke is that I am mortified of the alternative:

The Elephantine Ego that is Larry Summers.

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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Paul Krugman, The Great Nobel Joke: Part I

Paul Krugman recently wrote a blatantly fallacious and purely political bit of nonsense (no surprise) entitled "Learning From Europe."

When I read it, I considered writing a response, but fortunately, these guys did it for me. Funny that France has a lower per capita GDP than Arkansas.  Ouch.

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

When the Dust Settles, Leftists are all the Same

The Austrian School economists have long held that moderate government involvement in the economy always leads to total government, and that it is merely a matter of time.  It seems that there is a corollary: all Left/Centre-Left politicians are merely Marxists constrained by their political climate, and that given the chance, they would all become a Chavez or a Castro.

Our closeted Marxist of the day is none other than Gordon Brown, the bumbling buffoon who, thanks only to the fact that he was a necessary tool in the grander political designs of Lord Mandelson, continues to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (or, in a post-Lisbon Treaty world, perhaps we should begin referring to it as the United Fiefdom).  

Anybody who follows the British press will know about the near-mass hysteria over Kraft's attempted buy-out of British candy maker Cadbury.  Much of the hysteria has simply been popular nostalgia over the continued loss of Britishness, but today, Gordon Brown has decided to insinuate himself in the matter, by warning Kraft not to make any money in its investment by trimming costs:

Such populist muddle should not be surprising from a beleaguered politician whose days at No. 10 are growing few, but what we should recognize is the remarkable parallels between Mr Brown and the recent actions of the glorious leader of that bastion of stability and prosperity euphemistically known as the "Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela."

Mr Chavez recently took steps to devalue the Venezuelan currency (which anybody with an elementary understanding of economics will know leads necessarily to inflation), and then declared that any companies, large or small, that dared raise their prices (a requirement, if they had any desire to stay financially viable) would be shut down and assets confiscated.  Nobody can possibly be permitted to thwart the political designs of the central planners, because the history of government-imposed industrial and pricing policy has such a record of success--like the 30 million people who died as a result of Mao's Great Leap Forward, or the catastrophic poverty in the Soviet Union.

So Mr Brown may not be dispatching Scotland Yard to shut down a Kraft-owned Cadbury in the event of some cost-trimming, but we shouldn't be surprised if he concocts a specialized bonus tax that only applies to American-owned subsidiaries of food conglomerates who acquired their British operation in the last 5 years.  Rather than a total confiscation, it would merely be a partial confiscation, in the form of tax.  Alas for Mr Brown, his central planning would be so much easier to implement if he were the dictator of an oil-rich country.  But, at least for now, the remnants of English law and the political will of the Britons will constrain him. 

Posted via email from The Invisible Sand

Monday, January 18, 2010

Chilean Stock Market Surges on Election Results

The Wall Street Journal reports that Chile's Blue Chip Index, IPSA, has surged 0.6% on the outcome of the second round in yesterday's presidential election. 

With the substantial bolstering of financial markets in Panama after the election of Ricardo Martinelli and now the same happening with the victory of Sebastian Piñera in Chile, other Latin countries with elections on the horizon (especially Peru and Colombia) will hopefully be following suit.  For a region that has suffered mightily under the hands of interventionist governments, the healing process is beginning, and the economic future of Latin America appears to be getting better by the day.

Posted via email from The Invisible Sand

Chilean Presidential Election News Articles

For those who want to read a bit more on the historic election in Chile:

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Sunday, January 17, 2010

Chile Elects Free Market President

With about 60% of the votes counted, free market candidate (and billionaire businessman) Sebastian Piñera appears to have won Chile's presidential election, making him the first popularly elected centre-right president since 1958.  Center-left candidate and former President Eduardo Frei has conceded the race to Piñera.

Piñera joins Panama's Ricardo Martinelli amongst Latin America's entrepreneurial free market leaders, setting the stage for a renewed period of economic growth in Latin America's freest and most prosperous (per capita) country.

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Thursday, January 07, 2010

Political Stability and Fiscal Discipline

Carl Delfeld in SeekingAlpha today, writes:

Chile offers global investors the opportunity of gains from a country that hasweathered the current global economic meltdown better than most countries. It is politically stable, resource rich and fiscally conservative and since 2003, I have been in and out of Chile several times. As a percentage of GDP, Chile is the most export-oriented country in the world and has growing trade ties to Asia. According to the Economist, the share of Chileans living in poverty fell from 38.6% in 1990 to 13.7% in 2006, and education, health care and pensions are now much more widely available...The national copper company, Codelco, controls more than 20% of the world's copper reserves. Chile’s national debt is only 4% of GDP, and its sovereign wealth fund tops $20 billion. In addition, Chile’s announced $4 billion economic stimulus package packs some punch, being equal to 3% of GDP. Chile is also a free trader with a quiver of free-trade agreements with countries such as the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan, Canada, and South Korea. Chile depends on exports for 43% of its GDP. 

Emerging markets (and developed markets) everywhere can learn from Chile's experience.  Manage your resources responsibly, keep your politicians' crooked fingers out of the treasury, open your economy to the world, and reduce regulation, and you can not only insulate yourself from massive financial shocks, but position yourself to attract foreign capital and entrepreneurship as well as inspire it from within.

I am proud to call Chile home.

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Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Paying for the Health Care Bill

I have an idea for Nancy and Harry--

25% VAT on attorneys' invoices. With the US legal industry raking in about $230 Billion per year, that would be $57 Billion in added revenue.

It would have the added benefit of raising legal costs on the end user and reducing the demand for legal services.

I would also propose a 50% "windfall" tax on attorneys fees derived from so-called "blockbuster" punitive damage awards. I couldn't readily find the statistics on that, but it seems like another good place to squeeze out some revenue that isn't shouldered by the productive class.

Posted via email from The Invisible Sand

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Why Federalism Always Turns to Bullying

Writing in a Wall Street Journal blog, Ian Martin observed today that the veto by Iceland's president of a bill to compensate British and Dutch depositors for the $5.5 billion in losses sustained when the bank Icesave collapsed last year could scuttle Iceland's chances of admission to the European Union.  The bill will now be submitted to a popular referendum.  Martin notes:

"Here one suspects that the Icelanders are about to find out how the EU works.  If they dare vote no in a referendum, they can always be asked to vote again, and again and again.  Until they get the right answer."

Martin was of course alluding to the sham that was the second Irish referendum on the European Constitution Lisbon Treaty, where the Irish were bullied by the Brussels power elites and mammoth bureaucracy into going along to get along.  The people of France and the Netherlands had previously rejected the European Constitution, and it was renamed "Lisbon Treaty" and rammed through Europe's parliaments as a mere emendation to the Treaty of Rome thus avoiding the nastiness of democracy.  The Irish Constitution required a referendum for Ireland to ratify Lisbon, and as a result it was the only country to actually subject the document to a referendum.

Ireland rejected Lisbon in the first referendum, and a second one was held late last year, when it was at last ratified under heavy pressure from the European machinery.  

This situation, and something not dissimilar on the horizon for Iceland beg the question--does federalism really serve its stated purposes?

As somebody who has traditionally been a committed believer in federalism, I now must express serious doubts.  There is certainly great benefit to small, local government.  The massive success of the modern city states of Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore attest to this, as does the relative success of the smaller Soviet successor states like Estonia compared to larger ones such as Ukraine.  This is not to say that smallness is an economic panacea, as there are plenty of examples of large successful countries and small poor ones.  

The United States was historically the shining example of federalism's success--a perfectly struck balance of power between the national government and its 50 constituent parts.  But Progressivism (especially with the advent of the Income Tax, the Direct Election of Senators, and the creation of the Federal Reserve) followed by the two World Wars and the New Deal substantially eroded this balance, and the subsequent decades only exacerbated this process, supported by a series of complicit Supreme Courts' universalist interpretation of the Commerce Clause.  

The U.S. Congress is now the embodiment of federalist bullying, with the representatives of the various states being bribed and threatened to support legislation or risk being excluded from the doling out of fiscal goodies, which self-serving members of Congress rely on to secure their own re-election.  

The justification behind federalism is a deluded belief that political union with other economically interested peoples is necessary to foster economic cooperation and coordinated security policy.  This was the reason the thirteen sovereign republics of Atlantic North America abandoned their confederation in favor of a federation.  This was the reason the culturally and economically diverse peoples of Europe originally began the process of integration.  But as soon as power began to flow from Paris, London, and Berlin into Brussels, the people controlling Brussels had a sudden interest in expanding the size and scope of the political union, and threatened those who dared oppose that expansion with "exclusion" in much the same way heretics were excommunicated by the Papacy as a method to eliminate threats to its political power.

If this is the ultimate reality of federalism, it is no wonder that small republics like Chile have outperformed larger federations like Argentina and Mexico. 

We should learn a distinct lesson from this as we make prescriptions for the world's economic ills:

"Cooperation" is all too often a political euphemism for coercion.

Posted via email from The Invisible Sand